Lessons learned about lessons learned about forecasting El Niño and its impacts: Shades of Chaos

Should forecasting El Nino’s onset be distinguished from forecasting its post-onset locked-in phase? If an El Nino occurs in December 2014, is it the same one forecast earlier in 2014? Should the forecast of El Nino’s onset be considered experimental? Should the post-onset forecasts be considered operational? To what extent do the various oscillations impact the forecasting of El Nino’s onset and teleconnections?

For more information, please see the slide in English or see this slide in Spanish.

Mickey Glantz Author

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